Bangladesh has rarely witnessed a transfer of power that did not carry the weight of unfinished history. The arrival of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman marks not just a political transition, but a generational shift in a country still struggling to reconcile growth with democratic credibility. His victory ends nearly two decades of dominance by one political force, yet it also opens a more uncertain chapter for Bangladesh and its neighbourhood.
Rahman’s ascent follows a period of extraordinary upheaval. The student-led uprising that toppled the previous government in 2024, the caretaker administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and the first widely accepted election in years have together reshaped the country’s political landscape. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s sweeping win, securing a commanding parliamentary majority, reflects both voter fatigue and the desire for renewal. But it also raises the stakes. Expectations are high, patience is thin, and the institutional foundations of the state remain fragile. (Wikipedia)
The new prime minister inherits a system marked by deep polarization. For decades, Bangladeshi politics has been defined by rivalry between competing dynasties, where losing power often felt existential. Elections became battles not just for governance but survival. This culture weakened trust in institutions, politicized state machinery and narrowed democratic space. Rahman now faces a paradox: he must govern a divided nation while avoiding the temptation to replicate the same centralization that undermined his predecessor.
The question of legitimacy extends beyond Bangladesh’s borders. Western governments and investors have closely scrutinized the country’s democratic trajectory. Visa restrictions, governance concerns and reputational risks have already affected confidence. Rahman’s government must show that this transition represents a structural reset rather than a change of faces. Without credible institutional reforms, Bangladesh risks losing both diplomatic goodwill and the investment needed for its next phase of growth.
Economically, the inheritance is more complex than the headline success story suggests. Bangladesh remains a manufacturing powerhouse, driven by its garment exports and a large, young workforce. Yet this model is increasingly under strain. Global supply chains are shifting, automation is reducing labour advantages, and competition from other low-cost economies is intensifying. Inflation, currency pressure and employment anxieties are already visible. Reviving confidence without triggering social unrest will test both the government’s political capital and policy imagination.
Energy vulnerability is another pressing challenge. Rapid industrialization has made Bangladesh dependent on imported fuel. Global price shocks exposed this weakness, forcing difficult trade-offs between fiscal stability and social welfare. Power shortages and subsidy burdens risk slowing growth and undermining public trust. Structural reform in this sector, however, requires patience in a political culture accustomed to immediate results.
Yet it is foreign policy where the stakes are highest. Bangladesh has long balanced its relationships among India, China and the United States with strategic caution. That balance is now harder to sustain. Strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific is narrowing the space for neutrality. Every infrastructure project, defence partnership or trade negotiation is increasingly viewed through a geopolitical lens.
India will watch Rahman’s tenure closely. Stability in Bangladesh directly affects border management, migration and regional connectivity. Cooperation on water sharing, security and trade will shape the bilateral relationship. Any shift in tone or policy could have regional consequences.
China, meanwhile, will expect continuity in infrastructure and economic engagement. Beijing’s investments in ports, energy and connectivity are designed for long-term strategic returns. But deeper alignment carries risks for Dhaka, especially as global supply chains and security partnerships evolve.
The United States and Europe bring a different set of expectations. Governance, transparency and labour standards are central to their engagement. Bangladesh’s future as a preferred manufacturing and strategic partner depends not only on growth but on political openness.
Perhaps the greatest danger for Bangladesh is complacency. The country has shown remarkable resilience through natural disasters, political turmoil and economic shocks. But resilience can become an excuse for delay. Demographics, technology and geopolitics are compressing time. The margin for error is shrinking.
Rahman’s instinct may be to consolidate power before reforming institutions. That would be the familiar path. It would also be the most dangerous. Bangladesh’s young generation, which helped drive political change, will not easily accept a return to old patterns. Without early moves toward transparency, accountability and inclusion, the next crisis may escalate faster than the state can manage.
The opportunity, however, remains significant. Bangladesh still possesses entrepreneurial energy, a strategic geographic position and a dynamic workforce. If the new government chooses institutional credibility over political dominance and diversification over dependency, the country could redefine its role in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
The world is not asking Bangladesh for perfection. It is asking for proof that democratic renewal is real.
That is the true test before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman — and the real election Bangladesh has yet to win.
